學術研究 • ACADEMIC RESEARCH 50 澳大新語 • 2025 UMAGAZINE 32 「學術研究」為投稿欄目，內容僅代表作者個人意見。 Academic Research is a contribution column. The views expressed are solely those of the author(s). causing them to expect prices to climb. In both cases, people’s personal circumstances and prior beliefs play a key role in shaping how they interpret what they hear. Final Thoughts The broader lesson is that central bankers cannot assume the public will process technical information the same way financial professionals do. To truly influence expectations, the Fed needs to communicate in plain language and explain how policy decisions connect to household finances. It also needs to be mindful of how tone and delivery can shape the message. In housing, as in much of the economy, expectations can be as powerful as reality. The Fed’s words ripple far beyond financial markets, reaching living rooms across the country and shaping how Americans think about their most valuable asset: their homes. Lessons for the Fed The research findings have important implications for monetary policy. They suggest that Fed communication is not just a formality but a powerful policy tool. Interest rate adjustments alone do not always translate into changes in public expectations. However, when paired with clear, accessible explanations of how the adjustments affect everyday life, the Fed’s words can shift how people think about the future. The mode of delivery matters as well. Tone of voice and body language can amplify the message, sometimes more strongly than the words themselves. The research also underscores how unevenly people interpret economic news. For some, negative signals from Fed officials suggest that housing demand will weaken, leading them to predict falling prices. For others, the same signals lead to anxiety about worsening conditions, Carola Binder是美國德州大學奧斯汀分校的經濟學副教授。她在加州大學柏克萊分校取得經濟學博士學位。她是美國 全國經濟研究所貨幣經濟學研究員、布魯金斯學會的非駐院研究員，以及莫卡特斯中心的資深附屬學者。她也是《美國 經濟評論》編輯委員會成員，以及《經濟與統計評論》和《貨幣信貸與銀行雜誌》副編輯。 Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, US. She obtained her PhD in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. She is a research associate in Monetary Economics in the US National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a senior affiliate scholar at the Mercatus Center. Prof Binder is also a member of the Editorial Board for the American Economic Review, and an associate editor for the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 曠裴是澳門大學社會科學學院宏觀經濟學副教授。他於德國法蘭克福大學取得經濟學博士學位，曾任英國伯明翰大學 宏觀經濟學副教授及宏觀經濟與金融研究組聯合負責人。 Kuang Pei is an associate professor of macroeconomics in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Macau (UM). He obtained his PhD in economics from Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany. Prior to joining UM, Prof Kuang was an associate professor of macroeconomics and co-leader of the macroeconomics and finance research group at the University of Birmingham, UK. 唐力博士現任英國雷丁大學經濟學講師，曾於英國埃塞克斯大學和密德薩斯大學任教。他在伯明翰大學獲得經濟學博 士學位，並在劍橋大學獲得經濟學碩士學位。 Tang Li is a lecturer of economics at the University of Reading, UK. He previously worked at the University of Essex and the University of Middlesex. Dr Tang obtained his PhD in economics from the University of Birmingham and MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge.
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